[Predictions of Doom] Goblinworks is dead

I want to thank Tori-B from Realms of Chirak for drawing my attention to this. I thought the project was trudging along "well enough". Pathfinder Online (PFO) wasn't taking the world by storm, but neither was it being bashed to death - though I will admit to having heard more naysayers than people who loved it. Most of the negatives are things I would pass on as growing pains, and with the software not yet fully released all within the realm of the fixable: didn't like the presentation, didn't like the long walks, etc. Things that can be addressed.

I just read of the fate of Goblinworks and PFO: low money, layoffs, skeletal crew remaining, and the lead leaving. In the software industry, that's when you know it's time to bug out and that a project is dead. Right now, users are promised the servers will be up through the end of the month, that's not a very bright future for what seemed like a slam-dunk just a year or so ago. I've been on a few of those in the past and most company tend to pull the plug really quick on those projects.

It is with a heavy heart that I write this. I really wanted the game to be success. I never expected it to be on par with World of Warcraft in size, like a few of the more optimistic of my friends boasted but I expected it to have a decent success and be a product that would keep it going like a number of games out there that I enjoy: Dungeons and Dragons Online, DC Universe, Guild Wars, and Star Wars The Old Republic. As a cheapie, I would wait for it to go full free then play it, buying only DLCs and a few added bits and bobs like I've done for other games.

What can we learn from Goblinworks' experience? The short answer: stick with what you know best and license the rest. Seriously, TSR and WotC have done it with varying degree of success. When a partnership works, they continue (such as DDO) and the parent company keep raking in free cash and let others take the risk. When it is not doing so great, they stop (like that Daggerdale game). Another thing that really divided people was the "everything is PVP" that stance turned a number of people off (including myself), I suck at all PVP and generally stay away from those games - heck I don't do it in the games I play regularly!

However, we cannot write off Paizo and Goblinworks in one go. I think Paizo is still doing well enough to keep going, that the end of Goblinworks will not see it end (I sure hope not!!!) Creating software is not like writing books, you can't just throw more people at it and expect it to be done at the target date. It just doesn't work that way. In fact, the more people you throw at it, the more likely you end up with issues.

I really hope Goblinworks gets bought out by another gaming studio that we can get to see Golarion come to life.

I am seriously bummed about this news. Much more than I thought I would be , even if I don't have any money invested in it. Why? My home computer still runs XP, so I am below specs to run the game. Plus, I did not support those Kickstarters because of a number of reasons, one of them because I saw this coming.

Since this post is a prediction of doom, I have to make a dated prediction. With a sad and heavy heart, by Thanksgiving (end of November), Goblinworks will be gone and Pathfinder Online a thing of the past. The writing is on the wall: PFO is dying a quick death, how quick is the question. It was a nice dream but one that will never come to fruition.

Sad.

JP

[Predictions of Doom][Rant] Is Pathfinder Society Dying?

This is really not a rant... more of an inner questioning about a game I love so dearly. There are some ranty parts, mostly geared towards some people in particular.

For the past three or so years, the gaming landscape has been dominated by Pathfinder and Pathfinder Society. Paizo has done a great job of keeping us entertained with fun adventures, and an evolving storyline. PFS has grown from strength to strength until it became the biggest organized play campaign out there. Under the steady leadership of Mike Brock, and as of year 5, the inspired guidance of John C, we have been offered adventures that changed some elements of the campaign (killed the factions, better, more concise story line, an overarching plot).

All things I have been clamoring for since I submitted my application for Venture Captain in 2010. So I rejoiced in the additions - with the exception of the death of the faction. I like the factions.

Paizo fading?

In the past few days, I spoke to three different people (each in a different country, some Venture Officers, others local coordinators), and all of them remarked to me that PFS attendance was dropping and that the focus of many players was moving to 5e (either quickly or slowly).

With 5e getting closer, and WotC started to announce a few things. We are starting to see what the final product will be. The Exodus is about to begin.

For the past 2 years (since the banquet in 2012), I have been having this nagging feeling that Paizo has been kinda waiting for the next iteration of D&D before seriously touching the game. Going on a holding pattern until 5e was out: no major changes to the rules, no big updates, just a few additional products with an appeal that is much more limited than in previous years (no APG). From the major releases they have been putting out, I think their products are... uninspired. There are no more core books that really are core books. Bestiary 4's big selling point during the banquet was "you can fight Cthulhu."

I will go on a tangent here, but the idea of Cthulhu-in-D&D has never attracted me. There is something about it that just feels wrong. That said, I am a big fan of the Call of Cthulhu RPG. Hopefully the 7th edition will be arriving very soon. I have no interest in fighting Cthulhu. Like the Tarrasque in D&D, it is more or a plot device. Like Mutants and Mastermind's Power Level X opponents. But back on track.

During these two years, Paizo has moved from a purely RPG company to a bonafide gaming company. They have branched out into the card business, exploded their miniature business (I am wondering if they may new be glutting the market, but...)

I didn't see the quality of their product drop. I did not see the quality of the art drop significantly. I certainly did not notice a lack of enthusiasm for the PFS volunteers.

So why is PFS dying (one source's words, not mine)? Why is it loosing steam? (I think losing steam is more appropriate than dying) if by most account (including my own), Season 5 is the best season so far? Shouldn't it soar and keep on growing?

Attempt to understand

I will try to provide a few reasons:

Players have no buy-in Although the adventures are entertaining, players have nothing holding then there. They are not fighting for an idea. They do not work for a goal that is tangible. Even season 5's goal is neither noble nor really clear. What the PCs are doing as part of the season and the results are difficult to judge. So I as a player don't know what - if anything - my contribution, and I mean *MY* contribution brings to the table.

I and many others complained that 4e felt too much like an MMO. Have we cheapened our play experience to exactly that? Have we settled to treating our RPGs and Organized Play like we do our MMOs, something we do to pass time? Have we, as players, just decided to be viewers on the rails?

Asking the question another way, what is there that makes me feel important? What is there that makes *me* feel special?

Why, after being dead 6 years now, is Living Greyhawk still highly talked about, over Living City, or pretty much all of WotC's other organized play campaigns? Could the players have buy-in? Did they feel important and part of the plot? Did they have a way to help shape events in the campaign? Yes. Yes, they did. And that's where PFS failed to give the players any reason to remain loyal.

Players have no influence over plot Continuing the previous entry... For the first few years of the campaign, we were lied to and told that playing one's faction would influence something. There were a few half-hearted efforts to pretend like something mattered. Really, some ideas I proposed that were rejected off the cuff: have a monthly "winning faction" and give a minor bonus (a reroll, a +1 to a Knowledge skill, etc). There are many ways to decide who "won": Average PA/session, total PA, each only requiring a slight math change in a database query. Takes 2 seconds to do. I know the leadership looked at the number on a regular basis, so why not do that.

The bonus would be irrelevant to the adventure played. "For the month of June, all members of Taldor gain a +1 to any Diplomacy check." Not over powered, but to incite play and see which faction won.

Players have no influence over world After five years of play, what can we say the players have accomplished that affected anything in the world? Oh yeah! We opened a teleportation hole between Absalom and Varisia... This allows us to travel quickly between the two, when all adventures did that before. So no gain.

Even year five will not provide any significant change, just another fight of the Crusade... I am waiting to see what the GenCon finale will be but I won't hold my breath on its awesomeness. I expect it will be fun, but not great. FYI I won't play it at Gencon, I play it here in Kentucky with my children and local GMs who want to provide a good game experience. I've enjoyed myself a lot more locally and will continue to support and promote local play through my local stores above Gencon.

No special content, ever Only a few events in PFS history were ever unique: The Grand Convocation. And those were quickly dropped and barely remembered. No player ever does anything remarkable. Funny how people who play other organized play (I will use Arcanis as a counterpoint) can talk about battles they did and the unique encounters they had.

How many of those events can you remember in PFS where you did something really remarkable? I will admit that, since year 2+ most of the moments I remember are tied to the table with people doing something great. Generally things that would not have mattered whatever the game or adventure we played.

Bloated Rules After five years now with monthly releases adding partially-to-tested rules, feats, spells and other elements to the game Pathfinder, like all its predecessors has become bloated and is in serious need of a slim-down. Something that will concentrate the rules together, not add more. It is time to shake down the house and trim some extra branches. Since PFS only keep adding and adding to the campaign a lot of these rules elements

I have been saying we'll be getting a PFRPG 1.5 (not a full 2e) one year after 5e. Why not a full 2.0? Because Paizo realizes that even MORE people will drop off from their band wagon. So they need to update the rules just enough that people will WANT to change but not feel obligated to do so. Like 3.0-> and 3.5->PFRPG. From there, I hope we will see a number of simplifications of the game.

Newness factor of 5e One cannot discount the "newness" factor of 5e. It will be new, shiny, with fewer books to get into. And WotC will aggressively push it, seeking to regain its traditional seat as Lord of the RPGs. Will it work? I think it will have a nice success. It is very 4e-ish to me, but I try to keep an open mind. Will I try it over a game of PFS? Likely. I will make my decision on whether I like or not very quickly.

For me, supporting 5e will heavily depend on whether the have a real OGL. And just offering some free goodies is NOT an OGL. It's great to get players to buy-in, but for publisher to support and encourage the game... We'll see. My money is no "NO OGL". There will be partnerships, enough for WotC to get a couple of people involved, but the open safari that is the OGL is over, I think. Meaning the community as a whole is unlikely to jump in behind. Sure there will be a lot of people playing, but on a personal level rather than publishing level.

Adventurers League This is really what drew my eye: The announcement of the Adventurer's League. That post a LOT of goodness to it. They hit all the nails on the head: Premiere events impact the storyline, players get to make choices, a flow of new and different adventures.

Now my excitement about this is to be strongly tempered by this caveat: if this is just another endless series of "Encounters"-style games, I know I will have a lot of free time on my hands and I will not be playing 5e very long. BUT if we are given a quality campaign, with a story (and not a story of "you enter the tomb of the lich" kinda crap). But encounters where those who seek to play and interact with the world can do so, are rewarded, it may hold my attention.

Culture change Most people who have been with PFS a long time, have noticed a sharp culture change. From a "glad to play"-culture to one of entitlement where players always assume GMs are there to roll over an wallow in their own awesomeness. I will not lie and say that I can optimize the heck out of my characters (and when I try not to, they turn out even more ridiculously overpowered). The death of 4e really signaled the end of a fun time. Climbing the mountain make it exclusive. But with that gone, we've become the Jabba of the world.

A number of Venture Officers believe the world is owed to them and that because they are involved in PFS that everyone else deserves to bow to their will. I heard of a VO who claimed that boycotting a major event was "good for PFS."

Really?

Really?

I mean, really?

How will not helping an event help you in the long run? You have to be a COMPLETE MORON, to say, and believe that. Even if you dislike a convention or something about an event, supporting it is important. Whether attending as a player or a GM, supporting local and nearby event when you can is important and helps build relationship with gamers from other games. And what do you think these other gamers tell people about you and your campaign? That's right, they say that you are the best and most awesome people in the world and that they want to associate with you!

No. No they do not.

So when PFS will begin to die off, and it will. You will find yourself without any friends who will want to support you. That's just a really stupid attitude and shows how long you have been in the world of gaming. The answer is not a long time. Come on people!

Now that said, there are plenty of fine Venture Officers (enough to compensate for the idiots like the guy mentioned previously). They are passionate about PFS and run a good game and are a delight to their communities.

So is PFS doomed?

Everything dies.

I mean yes. But I do not see PFS going away in a short time. It may have a long decline before it goes away or is rebooted (PF2.0 would be a good time to reset the campaign...). It had a 5-6 year run. It has nothing to be ashamed of itself.

The coming year will be a big revelation to many people as players and GMs desert to 5e games. Events that used to regularly fill venues, will trickle to less and less.

That said, I think Paizo will continue to be an important part of the gaming landscape for a long time.

Is this a "PFS is gone in a year" prediction? NO. But I don't think we will see rooms the size of those we've been seeing at Gencon. It will be smaller.

The question I have is: "How will the leadership cope with this and how will the bounce back?" I think PFS or a revamped PF-OP can indeed rise again. There will be big changes to shake things up, but I think Paizo has this well in hand.

But only time will tell.

Hey what is your prediction? I foresee than within a year we will see a decrease in PFS play at large events ranging from 50-75% in the coming year while 5e will take an ever larger place. How long will this continue? I will post again after the release of 5e.

JP

Death of 4e announced on Twitter?

From time to time, the world of Twitter (follow me @jpon) brings me something that I just HAVE to respond to.

This morning I got up on the wrong side of the bed. I'm grumpy today (okay stop the wise cracks about me being constantly grumpy). When I got to the office, grumbling about not having coffee, I went through my backlog twitter feedback and I came across the following tweets by Stan! (@stannex) which somehow caught me by surprise. I was not only surprised but hopeful at the same time... Odd feeling for a cynic like myself.

Here are the two tweets that caught my eye (hashtags removed).

I'm told it's OK to tell you that today I went to work AT Wizards of the Coast for the first time since 2002. Pretty cool for a Monday.

Just so rumors don't fly, I'm NOT at WotC in a design capacity. I'm there as a Producer, shepherding projects thru the creation process.

Okay... so let's recap what happened recently from WotC... First they get Monte Cook, then they get Stan! as a publisher to lead creation process. That really looks like a changing of the (new) guard and a return of the many heads that allowed Wizards to reach the summit of their control of the industry: the early 2000s. Stan's (even if temporary) work at Wizards adds even more weight to my Predictions of doom^TM. I have had the chance to sit and talk to him a little at PaizoCon... Stan has to be one of the most creative person there is. Unless the WotC designers are complete idiots (which I do not believe they are), they will take advantage of this great resource.

Since Stan makes sure to let us know that he is not working as a developer but someone who "shepherds the creation process". This seems to me like they have a number of half-formed or incomplete projects they want to hammer out, complete and get off the plate. He can direct and expand projects that have been lying around for a while. This would allow WotC to have a number of products "almost ready" they could release over a time period while they put their designers and developers' brain to work on what we all know is coming sooner rather than later... This would allow WotC to have a revenue stream while they work through the chinks of their next big thing.

I frequently do that when I write. I jot down an idea. A block or two. A feat. A plot hook. An encounter design. Then I leave it be. It allows me to focus on the project at hand while keeping track of other ideas. After the current project is done, I go back, expand and develop. For example, while I was writing the NeoExodus Campaign Book. I have created no less than five other files with elements I thought should not go in there. This included a file full of feats, one of spells, one of monsters and one with some miscellaneous adventure ideas. Of these, Louis and I are planning an "NeoExodus Players' Guide" and a monster book called "Scions of the First Ones" for much later down the road. The names are VERY LIKELY to change, but elements for both already exist.

But back to the topic at hand...

The WotC guys have been VERY active on the twitterverse trying to get people to send them ideas and hints about what people want to see in their game. Its interesting to see the change of tone coming from them. From the early 4e day "everything else is crap but 4e" to the more community minded "what elements do you like in your game?" I see this shift as a positive sign. Good. They seem to have learned their lesson from the 4e PR debacle. Hopefully, they don't just listen to people who like what they do, but to some of the naysayers too. Naysayers frequently tell you more about your product (or force you to rethink your position, moreso than the "it's cool"s and "I like"s). Like when you go to Ebay, how many times do you read the positive comments vs. the negatives ones? I never read the positive reviews. Never. With this shift in approach, the guys may be changing the perception of the community towards WotC (or maybe that's just me) and getting ready for a big announcement.

The only thing they could be gearing up toward is... 5e.

The pieces are falling into place... What was a rant a few month ago is now becoming a road map of what we are seeing... One could almost say predictions of doom are seeing the stars align.

Maybe my mad rantings were not so wrong.

I would say... so right?

JP

Response to SRM: DND-flavored water

Stephen Radney-MacFarlane (SRM) has been blogging in his latest post about the impending announcement of "AD&D"... Now. Where have I heard this before? Some ranting and raving lunatic talking about and Advanced Dungeons and Dragons game. That's just silly.

Oh wait! It was in a PREDICTION OF DOOM!

Could I have magically influenced SRM into my way of thinking? In a 3.5 world, I could. In a 4e world, the effects would've stopped at the end of our encounter at the Paizo Banquet! The odd thing is, though 4e was discussed during the banquet as we all wanted to know some dirt from Stephen - he gave us enough to feed our ravenous appetites while staying very diplomatic. Kudos to him on that.

So Stephen's post (see above link and previous post) lets us hint at a few things. First, The name AD&D is spoken again. Also the "changing of the guard" at Wizards" where many people lost their jobs. I believe SRM is much more "on the pulse" as to what is going on in the Seattle area than I (high up in the mountains). I just rant and try to project the past into the future. Looking at Wizard's press release for Gencon 2011, I doubt 5e/AD&D will be coming this year, so my original prediction of AD&D for Gencon 2012 still holds.

The fact that the name AD&D is out there I find exhilarating, but not-so-surprising really. After all I said it first...

I agree with most of SRM's post. There is something to be said about being part of something exclusive or unique: from the cheerleader squad to fraternities to the football team to D&D groups to better schools to high-profile jobs, rarity creates a sense of belonging. Being able to learn then advance and finally master a system is part of the fun. It's the buy-in. 4e was designed to bring in new players and on that note I believe it succeeded. It did bring in new faces (and brought back old ones) to the hobby. But when something is so easy a caveman could do it... it does lose some of his mystique, some of its prestige, some of its draw. While it might be fun for a day... It may not be something you want to do.

Like SRM says, 4e expanded its audience by turning its back on a lot of traditional gamers. Those guys who have tirelessly GM'd and organized events for them. With LFR leading the pack, they flushed away many free volunteers running cons and event in favor of small time events. How many LG-only cons were they in 2007? How many LFR cons are there now? Heck, guys drive from Denver to Colorado Springs to play LFR because nothing happens up there! (it's a 50 mile drive I am well-accustomed to.)

I think they have done something right using old IP to generate knowledge of a product. The red box did bring in some people through sheer nostalgia (though many gamers quickly put it back when they discovered it was a 4e product). Their themed boardgames based on Castle Ravenloft gives players something to build on. Since they played a light version of the game, jumping into the full game isn't that far of a leap. Get people in the door with a simple game and go from there. I met a Pathfinder player or two who got into the hobby by that particular game! Gets the name out there, gets product out. And the old guys (like me) can tell you all about what they did in I6 Ravenloft... That should be a series of posts... I was 12 years old...

I personally enjoy DDO (D&D Online, since it gone free) and at least look at any D&D computer games out there. I did not get the 4e computer game after reading reviews of how terrible it was, but I did consider it. Why? Just because it said D&D on the cover. I would be okay with playing 4e on the PC since it seems designed for it. But again, this would be what I'd call "D&D-flavored water". Its not the real juice but it reminds me of it. I don't play DDO or D&D computer to replace my table top experience or to experience deep in-character debate or inner party conflict. Comes 11pm, I have an hour to go beat up on monsters. Beat up monsters I do!

Switch brain off. Kill kill kill. Sleep.

The future? The name Dungeons and Dragons still has a lot of commercial value and potential. Anything with the name immediately draws interest. Should WotC move to a board Game only release? I don't know. They won't get my money for that. Then again they aren't getting my money right now either.

I might fork out cash for 5e. Then again I might get a "free" PDF first, evaluate it and then decide. The guys might have a few surprises left in their think-tank and the new system may learn from the 4e/Pathfinder situation, take what I like from both or either. Let's hope they draw the right conclusions from their 4e adventure.

Stay tuned folks.

JP

Predictions of Doom: Pathfinder Pre-Painted Minis

The bloggosphere and social media has exploded in a frenzy of activity regarding the announcement yesterday that Paizo and WizKids (the heroclix people) have come to an agreement regarding a line of prepainted plastic Pathfinder minis. See more details here, but the bloggosphere is filled with

Personally, and very honestly, I couldn't care less. I won't buy them myself. I like to prep, prime and paint my minis and that part is important to me.

That said... many others do not share my love of painting and playing with miniatures. And for those people, I think this is good news. The "sample" presented, the Kyra miniature is very nice and looks pretty good. Wizkids' stuff used to look pretty bad in its infancy but recently the quality has gone up very nicely, case and point, their superhero stuff is pretty cool (I do own a collection of Marvel un-clix'd minis). I used them for Mutants and Mastermind and really enjoyed them.

Though not announced yet the price will be a big factor in determine its overall success. There is little doubt in my mind that the comparable 4e characters mini packs have sold reasonably well (judging by how often they appear on the table). Packaging, pricing and grouping will be critical to the success.

I expect a pack that includes all or most of the main rulebook's iconic Pathfinder characters (such as Kyra, Merisiel, Ezren and Valeros) and maybe some special goodies (goblins and an ogre maybe?). The packaging will resemble the latest special packs produced for their superheroes line (clear hard plastic to showcase the minis).

So while I can say a clear "not for me" to those, I look forward to playing with those new figs. I actually predict they will do well. Well enough for a bigger set or more "monster packs"? That remains to be seen. But I recommend you store owner stock up early on this.

WOW! Predictions that do not predict the end of time and that do not include a single jab towards 4e... I surprise myself! Have a good day everyone, the world of gaming is not yet ending!

JP

Prediction of Doom: Pathfinder Society!

Just to be sure… Prediction of Doom is a term that I use regularly to indicate something that I would be willing to bet actual money on. It does not only mean that bad things are going to happen. Though most of the time it does.

But not today!

For months now I have been like the stream in the canyon, scratching, asking, shouting, yelling and generally being an annoyance over things I consider essentials. But it’s not sufficient to just yap, whine and shout. One has to put his money where his mouth is! Now you see the link to Prediction of Doom?

If you didn’t know, there are major changes coming to Pathfinder Society culminating at Gencon. I’ll refer you to Paizo.com for fulls details. In short: new factions, a shakeup in how there are involved in the adventure, changes on some of the NPCs. To make a long story short, Society is evolving and I am very excited about this, which is an odd change from my normally dour disposition. Player feedback (some I think may go too far, but it is better to move forward than to stagnate.

One of the things I recently predicted (privately) has come true. I was asked to perform a small task for the Society regarding an upcoming product. Don’t ask (unless you’re Mark or Hyrum), I won’t say. And it really doesn’t matter… The important thing is that I got involved more directly than before in an area I have been asking for, for a long time now.

Good times.

Better times ahead.

I’ll let you know about specifics when I can. For now I’m just so excited! I hope this is but the first of many such projects.

*Fingers crossed*

Sooooooo, my Prediction is that Paizo and the Pathfinder Society with the dynamism and responsiveness to feedback will stay around for many years. In eight years of Organized Play, I have yet to see an organization respond to feedback like Mark & Hyrum are doing.

That said, I know other campaigns are responsive to their fan base and I don’t want to rub them the wrong way (looking over my shoulder to PCI, who seem to respond well, but I have not experienced enough of their campaign while it was going on to be able to say).

GO PFS!

JP

Predictions of Doom: 4e is the new Coke

Yesterday, I posted a collection of Predictions of Doom^TM regarding 4e, LFR and the RPGA (read it HERE). The post was one of subjective observation. My dislike (to say the least) of 4e is great. But the column poses deductions and observations I had regarding the above-mentioned subjects. I presented a number of facts and examples of things I thought were going to happen in the future. I thought it was actually pretty upbeat about 4e. Past behavior is best predictor of future behavior.

Then Scott, a man extremely devoted to 4e, posted a lengthy comment accusing me of 4e bashing. 4e sales are dwindling is something I have been observing locally and across the internet in the "markets" where I have some interest (which includes Denver, Montreal, Paris and Dublin). The game IS losing steam. It is losing players too. Pathfinder is eating into 4e sales big time. My local game stores can't hold on to PFRPG core books (or Bestiary, or APGs), but their 4e stuff gathers dust (not really 'cuz they clean up everything, but you get the idea). It sells MUCH slower than it did a year ago.

The funniest thing about this article? I thought it was the least amount of 4e-bashing I did in months. My Predictions of Doom were laid out clearly with what I thought would happen, with the basis of my analysis and deductions.

If people want to play 4e, they sure can. I won't. The Predictions were not aimed at stopping people from playing.

Now on to my response to Scott:

My first reaction to the 4e announcement was one of cautious optimism. There were things I liked about what they announced and things that made me wary. Being pessimistic by nature, I remained cautiously interested until I can see the final product.

One thing about playing D&D is that is had its own universe, its own uniqueness, its "D&Disms" that you loved or hated and its distinct game worlds. 4e stripped away most of it and mish-mashed everything together. Had 4e been called "Wizards & Warriors", "Table Top MMO" (or anything else) I would've enjoyed it for what it is: a different game paradigm in a different rule set. It’s like an Battlestar Galactica episode where people come in for a short cruise, spend a few days and leave totally in love as the crew feeds them cocktails and scamper about in bikinis. You would alienate the fans. 4e is the Love Boat in the world of Battlestar Galactica.

I left 2e in 1993 because it was too restrictive and did not give me enough control over my character. I was not in charge of my character. Everything had been hashed by someone else before me. Someone did everything and all I had was to match race, class, equipment and I was done. If I was a fighter, customization meant choosing a sword or an axe... The only difference between the parties I was in was that we had a cleric/ rogue, a fighter/ rogue and a wizard/ rogue. I didn't like it so I started playing other games and dropped D&D.

I tried 3e in January of 2003 and found it had addressed issues I had with the game. *I* was the one who would create his character in the way I wanted: I could assign skill points, chose feats, chose a different classes as I leveled, my cleric was very much like my "typical" 2e characters but with new bells and whistles and he was very different than other player's characters. My buffing cleric had to manage his resources, including healing. There was a system to handle things like knowledge and talking to other people! Good times! So I began playing Living Greyhawk and enjoyed 3e.

When I got my 4e pre-release material around January of 2008 (yes, I got it before all of you), I devoured its content wanting to like it. I WANTED to be as seduced by it as I remember when I opened my 2e PHB at the Travel Agency where my sister worked. I wanted to LOVE it, to EMBRACE it and to become the best 4e spokesman there was. But the more I delved into 4e, the less I liked it. The reasons I left 2e were back. Customization: not there (very limited). Non-combat situations: not there (if you are not in an encounter, you are wasting time). Good skill system: Not there (over-simplified and now a player does not have to invest or make a choices about his skill). Multi-classing is gone (I now get to use one ability 1/encounter). First I stopped having fun with it, then I stopped GMing it, then I stopped writing for it then I stopped playing it and finally I just gave up.

I have this concept I wanted to build in 4e (mostly because I never played that character in other games): an ELVEN ROGUE using the bow as his main weapon. Not shuriken. Not daggers. Not a hand crossbow. I wanted to use a bow, ANY bow would be fine. It must be a concept that is too far out there to handle as part of the basic game. It must be something that never happened in fantasy literature. I mean... 1-3e and Pathfinder handled that concept very well out of their core book. I generally try to find concepts that do not require me to carry 50 splat books (I'm lazy that way).

Throughout your post you accuse me of taking the designers’ criticism of their work at their word. Why shouldn’t I? Aren’t they proud of having the job they did? If there was something that was so bad about the game, why did they wait 3 years (4e was developed Jan 2005-Jun 2008) before they came up with a fix for it? If 3e was a PoS why did they attend major cons pretending 3e was the bomb? Why did they tell us that 4e was a paranoid gamer’s fantasy? Don’t they have the job many of us would LOVE to have? If what they produced before was such crap, why would we expect them to suddenly come up with great material? Wasn’t the new Coke supposed to be so good that it would make old Coke disappear?

That’s not what happened… After trying out the new coke, people hated it, and Coca-Cola realized it quickly enough that they were able to get back their clientele and trade blows with Pepsi once more. 4e is the new Coke that WotC keeps saying is what we want to drink. It’s the Coke that we’ve been told we’ve been wanting for years.

But we moved on to Pepsi/Paizo products.

Scott, if you honestly expect (any flavor of) 4e to stick around beyond 2013, please contact me at that time where I will publicly apologize, recognize the non-validity of this prediction and even play a game of 4e! I'm serious. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. You have me on record right here. Oh wait... It will not be 5e... it'll be the "AD&D"!

Yes folks! You heard it here first... AD&D is coming back. The net result: 5e/AD&D will be *kinda* similar (same basic mechanics) but not so much so that you can use all your 4/4.5/RB with it. There will be just enough that you need to re-purchase all your stuff for this new format because it will have the "super cover of awesomeness" or some other gimmick. They will just avoid calling it 5e.

But it will be 5e.

All the fatalism and humor aside... Seriously Scott... Do you REALLY expect 4e to stick about 8 years like 3e did? WotC is re-branding it after "just" 2.5 years...From looking at your blog, you are an intelligent guy. Did I say something that sounded perhaps a little too right?

4e will be around until a suit comes in and says "sales are down, time for a new version!". 5e / AD&D will be on the shelves a few months later.

JP

Predictions of Doom: 4e, RPGA, LFR

I read with some amusement about the apparent demise of 4e, LFR and the RPGA announced on EnWorld and the Paizo Forums. In a rare instance, I will not jump onto the bandwagon of doom. That’s right... Mark your calendars folks! I do not think this is the death of any of the above. Those animals need to be taken separately as to what I predict will happen. This post is bound to include a number of predictions of doom^tm.

The RPGA

Ever since the arrival of 4e, WotC re-branded everything: the game, the logos, the presentation, the art. Everything! The common use of RPGA has been disappearing in favor of newer brands and terms. We now have the WPN or Wizards Play Network. I don’t read much into this re-branding, other than WotC’s desire to link people’s minds that D&D = WotC and not D&D = RPGA. My own company does it on an irregular basis: change the logo, bring in a new mission statement, move a few directors around, etc.

I guess the question is: what was the RPGA? Before it got turned into the WPN, I mean.

Starting around 2003, the RPGA began to drop many of its organized play campaigns (such as Living City, Living Jungle, Living Dragonstar and later Living Rokugan, Living Arcanis and Living Force. What remained? Living Greyhawk was the flagship and the D&D Campaigns (Green Regent and Mark of Heroes) supplemented play.

As far back as 2006, I started to consider the RPGA as "just" a marketing tool. A very efficient one at that - so I believe. By the time 4e started in 2008, you had the dying gasps of LG and LFR which was coming on-line. That was it. Came 2009, LG was gone and LFR was what the RPGA offered.

Like many things, brands, names and images have power. How many of us saw the red box, picked it up and said I haven’t seen those in twenty years! NICE! Then you learned it was 4e and either swiftly put it back on the shelf or bought a copy. While some people might have liked or disliked the RPGA, it was one thing you knew you could count on: you would have a seat at a game table.

That said, I think the RPGA, its logos and its presentation is on the way out. WotC will let it sleep for a few years then re-brand it for 5e with new logos, new colors and a big fanfare. With the re-launch of the of the RPGA! the universe will be at peace once again. You heard it here first, folks! That’s my prediction of doom. The RPGA will re-rise like a phoenix with WotC saying that they listened to their fans and brought it back.

I mean when the RPGA was formed, it was to promote play and unification. It was for GAMERS, to provide an umbrella of legitimacy to cons and game events.

Living Forgotten Realms

The news that LFR was getting dumped by WotC hit last summer. I was not overly surprised by it. Being over LFR, my emotional reaction was indifferent. With some time to digest this, I think this might be the best thing that could have happened to the campaign. Yes, I believe that!

Pick your jaw off the floor.

A number of factors contribute to this. First, WotC and its edicts are no longer the only driving force behind the campaign. This should allow the authors and admins to gain additional freedom and putting what WotC refused us in the adventure.

1 - A strong storyline.

2 - Role playing encounters that don’t start and end with Make a Diplomacy check, get some *ROLE*.

3 - More creative adventure writing and formatting.

4 - Interactives. That would be a winner on their part, but seeing blogs from Gregg Marks, I doubt it will happen. Though now it doesn’t matter... I was very happy to see Timmy’s LFR interactive happen this past weekend. It was a huge draw (only problem is that it was all day). Interactives are the one place where they could make some huge gains over Pathfinder Society. Special and unique content brings people to cons and to the table. Like everything in LFR: It doesn’t matter.

5 - Consequences... I make a lot of fun about LFR and saying that the campaign’s motto is It doesn’t matter. But now with them gaining some freedom over the content and story, I truly believe this might change. I HOPE it will change.

6 - Finally I doubt it will die in the blink of an eye. It will die slowly, after a long agony. That is because of the many dedicated fans and volunteers who week-in week-out run the campaign. Those volunteers who spent a lot of energy on 4e want to see it succeed, but I fear it is a losing battle. Denver has a big LFR community that will remain thriving for the coming year or two. As long as Paizo and Pathfinder keep up what they are doing, more and more people will be migrating back to the more stable game system - I don’t see a Pathfinder 2e coming out next year.

7 - Another prediction of doom: Unless there is a big change in Campaign Admin staff, I doubt much will change from what it is now. The campaign directors have been too close for too long to really come up with new ideas.

4e’s Future

Now, I do believe that the 4e ship has come and gone. WotC gambled on the edition war and lost, thinking they could simply dictate what people would like/ play and simply guess wrong. Two and a half years after its release and the community is still heavily divided about 4e. Going back to 2002, the same time after 3e and very few people still played 1e/2e. Most D&D games had moved on to 3e or some variant of 3e.

Will 4e disappear tomorrow? No. Far from it! 4e fans will still enjoy their game. Their numbers will dwindle until only the die-hards remain.

Now no prediction post about the future of 4e would be complete without word of 5e. Ever since 4e was announced, 5e was in people line of sight. With the Essentials/ Red Box being released, which WotC CLEARLY avoided marketing as 4.5 (even though it IS a half-edition). This 4.5 will be around for about another 2 years and at Gencon 2013 - mark your calendar folks...

Gencon 2013

At Gencon 2013, you will be given the chance to experience 5e in all its glory. After all, they will say, 4e lasted 5 years (avoiding all references to 4.5). After all this time the game needed an overhaul. Your 4e stuff will become unusable and obsolete.

Good news: 5e will clean up the game, save the universe, make you a chocolate sundae, tell you when to shower, give you a dream job and provide you with a voucher to make the rain stop! In short, it will be perfect from day one! In those blessed days, 4e will be reviled as the devil itself and proof that gamers in those days were forced to play with sub-optimal and incomplete games...

Ahhh 5e, you will be so perfect that Jesus himself will come down from Heaven a second time to run a game of Eberron using you. Buddha will break his eternal bliss and play a 5e ranger. Mohammed himself will reveal to his people that the 72 virgins in Heaven form 12 tables of 5 5e players, each with their own sets of dice and rulebook. As you can see there will no longer be wars in the world and everything will be right. Oh happy day!

That is, if you drink the Cool-Aid. Remember at Gencon 2007 how bad and horrible they said 3e was? How they spent a full year pointing out problems in the system (many that weren’t)? How obsolete and monstrous 3e had become? How terrible a system it was? How they could not understand how people could play it? How so easy and fun it was? How cluttered the game had become with all the supplements?

Yep.

Yep, yep, yep.

You’ll hear it again I’m afraid.

WotC missed the point that they simply cannot discard the old-guard and simply focus on new players. Today’s game community has just so many rpgs to play. Assuming your old guard will follow to 5e simply because you said so is simply not realistic.

It was true in 1989 when 2e came out.

Twenty years later, the situation has changed.

Finally

4e won’t just go away just yet. It is still supported and has many very loyal fans who will continue to make the game run and have a local presence. While 4e has many issues, that make me recoil in its presence, it’s not dying. Nor will it simply vanishing out of existence.

The RPGA as a brand is being phased out only to rise like a phoenix in a few years’ time. I mean... I’ve been hearing WHAM! Songs on the radio recently... and if that can come back... *Shudders*

And LFR may actually experience a renaissance of sorts. Away from WotC’s stranglehold and by allowing more freedom to authors and administrators, allow ideas from the community to influence and shape the campaign.

JP